The first leg of the Europa League 2025/26 qualification playoff between Brann (Norway) and AEK Larnaca (Cyprus) will take place on August 21 at the Brann Stadium in Bergen. Brann vs. AEK Larnaca: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 17%.
For Brann this is a historic opportunity — a first-ever chance to reach the Europa League group stage, and the tie in Bergen could be decisive. AEK Larnaca, by contrast, have far greater European experience, having reached group stages and even the knockouts in recent years, but their away form this season leaves plenty of questions.
Brann sit third in Norway’s Eliteserien and came into this clash on the back of a 2:1 win over Tromsø at the weekend. They dealt confidently with Häcken in the previous round, though slow starts remain an issue. Home form in Europe is a real concern: their last two continental matches in Bergen ended in defeats, including a heavy 1:4 loss to Salzburg that cost them a Champions League place. In their last 10 games overall, Brann have five wins, two draws and three losses, scoring in eight of those but conceding regularly, particularly against pacey opponents.
AEK Larnaca have already come through three qualifying rounds to reach this stage, and once again they’ve relied heavily on home results, winning all of them. Away from Cyprus the numbers are far less convincing: one draw and two defeats, the latest a 1:2 setback against Legia. Even so, AEK Larnaca have managed to score in almost every away fixture, underlining their attacking intent. Their European pedigree is solid — three Europa League group campaigns in recent years — and with the Cypriot league yet to start, all focus is on Europe.
Both sides carry vulnerabilities: Brann lack consistency at home, while AEK struggle on their travels. But the Norwegians’ form and scoring record tip the balance slightly in their favour. Brann have already passed a tough test in Häcken and remain firmly in Norway’s top three. AEK should be good for a goal on the road, but their defensive lapses make them vulnerable in Bergen.
